Greenwich Inventory: Months of Supply Explained

Wondering why some Greenwich homes sell in days while others linger for months? You’re not imagining it. The difference often comes down to a simple metric called months of supply and how it plays out at each price tier. In this guide, you’ll learn what months of supply means, how it’s calculated, and how to use it to price, time, and negotiate your move in Greenwich. Let’s dive in.

What months of supply means

Months of supply, or MOS, tells you how long it would take to sell the current active inventory at the current pace of sales if no new homes came on the market. It’s a quick way to gauge whether buyers or sellers have more leverage right now.

The common formula is simple: MOS = Active Listings / Average Monthly Closed Sales. Many professionals also watch the absorption rate, which is the percentage of active inventory that sells each month. Absorption rate is the inverse of MOS.

As broad guidance from industry benchmarks: under 3 months typically signals a seller’s market, around 3 to 6 months is balanced, and over 6 months points to a buyer’s market. Treat these as guideposts, not absolutes.

How to calculate MOS

To get a clear number, use consistent inputs:

• Active listings: Count what is available right now. Exclude expired, cancelled, sold, or temporarily off-market listings.
• Closed vs. pending sales: Closed sales are finalized but lag the market. Pending sales reflect current demand but may not close. Use closed sales for MOS and view pending sales as a near-term signal.
• Time window: Average monthly sales can use the last 1, 3, or 12 months. Short windows show immediate shifts but are noisy. Longer windows smooth seasonality but may lag turning points.

A best practice is to calculate MOS with a 3-month rolling average for most price tiers, and a 6 to 12-month lookback for very high-end tiers where closings are less frequent.

Why Greenwich is different

Greenwich is an affluent, supply-constrained market with a meaningful luxury segment. Limited developable land, single-family zoning in many neighborhoods, and a large detached-home stock can restrict new supply.

Demand is also influenced by proximity to New York City, so mortgage rates and NYC employment trends can shift buyer activity. Seasonality matters as well. Spring often brings more listings and sales, while winter activity slows. Compare same-month year-over-year MOS to avoid confusing seasonal swings with true market changes.

Price tiers matter

Overall MOS can hide big differences by price point. In Greenwich, it’s common to see lower MOS under $1 million while the $5 million-plus tier shows higher MOS at the same time. One sale or withdrawal in the luxury segment can move the numbers quickly. Reading the market by tier is essential.

Under $1,000,000

This tier often sees strong demand for well-located homes and condos, and inventory can be tight. When MOS is low, you’ll see faster offers and limited concessions. Multiple-offer scenarios are common in stronger conditions.

$1,000,000–$2,000,000

This is often the busiest tier and can set the tone for the wider market. If inventory dips here, MOS can fall fast, and days on market can compress. Well-prepared listings tend to move quickly when priced correctly.

$2,000,000–$5,000,000

Results vary by property type and uniqueness. A standout home with strong presentation can sell swiftly, while more average offerings may see longer marketing times and negotiation. MOS can swing based on a handful of closings.

$5,000,000+

High-end luxury usually carries higher MOS relative to lower tiers. Marketing periods are longer, negotiations are more bespoke, and small sample sizes make the data volatile. Expect more back-and-forth on timing, inspections, and specialized terms.

What MOS means for you

Low MOS under 3 months

• Sellers: You have stronger pricing power. Consider firm list pricing, tighter contingency windows, and a strategy that can handle competitive bids.
• Buyers: Prepare for competition. Bring strong pre-approval, move quickly on showings, and consider escalation clauses or flexible closing timelines.

Balanced MOS of 3–6 months

• Sellers: Solid pricing and complete marketing will attract qualified buyers. Some concessions may be part of a successful deal.
• Buyers: You’ll have more options and room to negotiate. Standout homes can still draw interest, so be ready to act when the fit is right.

High MOS over 6 months

• Sellers: Plan for longer marketing and possible price adjustments. Credits, repairs, or flexible terms can help win the right buyer.
• Buyers: You may have leverage. Negotiate on price and inspection items, or request seller-paid closing costs when appropriate.

Real-world scenarios

The numbers tell a story. Here are two hypothetical examples to see MOS in action:

• Hypothetical 1: Active listings = 60; average monthly closed sales = 20. MOS = 60/20 = 3. This suggests a balanced to slightly seller-leaning environment if other indicators align.
• Hypothetical 2 (luxury tier): Active listings = 30; monthly closed sales = 2. MOS = 30/2 = 15. That implies a strong buyer’s market in that tier, with longer marketing times and a need for pricing discipline and incentives.

In Greenwich’s higher price points, small changes in the count of closings can move MOS dramatically. Always pair the math with context like days on market and recent sale-to-list trends.

Using MOS to negotiate

Use your tier’s MOS to set strategy:

• Timing: In low-MOS tiers, submit a clean, prompt offer. In higher-MOS tiers, you can take time to diligence the property and market.
• Contingencies: Tighten inspection or financing windows when competition is fierce. In higher-MOS tiers, negotiate broader protections.
• Price vs. non-price: Consider closing credits, flexible closing dates, home warranties, or covering certain fees to bridge gaps.
• Escalation clauses: When MOS is low and competition is likely, an escalation clause can help you win without overpaying upfront.
• Inspection scope: In a competitive tier, narrow the scope and timeline. In a looser tier, request repairs, credits, or price adjustments based on findings.

How often to check MOS

If you’re planning to list soon, monitor a weekly MLS snapshot during the 30 to 60 days before your launch. If you’re house-hunting, track MOS and new listings weekly so you can spot momentum changes quickly. For monthly reporting, always include the data date and whether you used closed or pending sales for the calculation.

Best data and method

To read Greenwich accurately, keep your approach consistent and transparent:

• Use local-first data from the MLS and supplement with state and national reports for context.
• Label your methodology: note whether you used closed or pending sales and your lookback window.
• Use rolling averages. A 3-month average reduces noise. For luxury tiers, consider 6 to 12 months.
• Break out by price tier and property type. Single-family and condo markets can behave differently.
• Compare the same month year over year, and review month over month to catch recent shifts.
• Flag outliers. A trophy estate closing can skew the $5 million-plus tier for a month.
• Apply a minimum-sample rule. If a tier has fewer than about 8 to 10 monthly closings in your window, add a caution note about volatility.

Next steps

If you’re preparing to list or buy in Greenwich, align your pricing and negotiation plan with the MOS in your specific tier. Pair the math with on-the-ground context like recent price reductions, days on market, and buyer traffic. A focused strategy can save you time, money, and stress.

If you want a tier-by-tier snapshot tailored to your home or search, connect with Robin Bartholomew for a concise, data-informed plan.

FAQs

What is months of supply in real estate?

• Months of supply measures how long it would take to sell current active inventory at the recent pace of sales, assuming no new listings come on the market.

How does absorption rate relate to months of supply?

• Absorption rate is the share of active inventory sold each month and is the inverse of months of supply.

How should Greenwich buyers use MOS when making offers?

• Match your terms to your tier’s MOS by tightening timelines and using escalation clauses in low-MOS tiers and negotiating for price or credits in higher-MOS tiers.

How often should Greenwich sellers check MOS before listing?

• Review weekly MLS snapshots during the 30 to 60 days before you list and use the most recent monthly data in your pricing plan.

Do low MOS readings guarantee a quick, high-price sale?

• No, they increase the probability of strong results, but pricing, condition, presentation, and marketing remain decisive.

Should sellers in a high-MOS tier cut price immediately?

• Not always; first review comparable sales, property uniqueness, and days on market, then consider staged adjustments and targeted marketing.

How do mortgage rates affect Greenwich MOS?

• Higher rates typically reduce affordability and can raise months of supply, especially in price-sensitive tiers, while lower rates can tighten inventory.

Where can I find current Greenwich MOS numbers?

• Local MLS reports are the most authoritative, with added context from state and national market summaries; always note the data date and methodology used.